Starting on November 6, world leaders are gathering in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, for COP27. The name stands for the 27th conference of parties, an almost annual event started under the 1992 UN framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC). The purpose of these conferences is to ensure that counties around the world are committed to taking action to avoid dangerous climate change and find ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions globally in an equitable way. The effectiveness of these meetings varied throughout the years, with some successful initiatives, like the 2015 Paris Agreement, a legally binding international treaty adopted by 196 Parties with the goal of limiting global warming below 2, preferably 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels.
Last year, during the COP26 held in Glasgow, countries agreed to focus on the tougher 1.5°C goal of the Paris agreement, as new research shows that the 2°C increase would still have a devastating, and likely irreversible, effect on the climate system. In 2021, many countries updated their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and set out long-term targets to reach net zero carbon by 2050. Experts warn however that the pledges are inadequate to meet the goals.
To keep temperatures below 1.5°C rise compared to preindustrial levels, the world would need to reach net zero by mid-century, but also halve greenhouse gas emissions in this decade compared to the levels registered in 2010. The second part is equally important, as emissions have a cumulative effect, due to the fact that carbon stays in the atmosphere for about a century after it is released. For this reason, scientists are calling the 2020s the “critical decade for climate change”, as the window of opportunity is narrowing for keeping global warming below 1.5°C. It is estimated that the world is currently between 1.1°C and 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels, and if all planned emission cuts are met, a rise in temperatures of between 1.8°C and 2.4°C is expected by the end of the century.
Even at the 1.5°C level, rising sea levels are still anticipated, as is the bleaching of coral reefs, increased heatwaves, droughts floods, and other extreme weather manifestations, but the effects are considered manageable compared to the extremes associated with a 2°C rise. Current events, like the long-lasting effects of the pandemic on the world economy and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, have made some of these goals even more difficult to achieve, as energy and food prices are increasing, raising the threat of food shortages and leading to a cost-of-living crisis. To bridge the energy gap, some EU countries are considering returning to coal-fired power generation.
Besides re-emphasizing the importance of achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions, COP27 is also focused on climate finance, adaptation, loss, and damage. Climate finance refers to the financial aid provided to developing countries to help them cut emissions and cope with the impact of extreme weather. Since COP26, countries agreed to double the amount of climate finance allocated to mitigating the most devastating effects of extreme weather, a direct effect of climate change that puts the poorest countries most at risk. The necessity of these measures is underlined by the devastating events that occurred this summer, like the destructive floods that hit Pakistan or the droughts affecting vast regions of Africa.
